Gloves Production Capacity

 

VSTECs

 VSTECs

1)Management ----> 華人公司.
     *創辦人已不掌行政權. 是老員工再掌權. 創辦人孩子沒掌大權只掌高職CIO 
2)Product ---> 批發名牌ICT 產品.
     * 不是自己產品. 就買賣模式
3)Net cash ---> 78.86M
     * 不是借回來的.

4)Revenue ---> 過去5年 都 1.8B ~ 1.9B 除了2018 降至1.6B. 2019 有回到2016

    的水平.  

      *生意是穩穩那種, 2018 生意降可能是國內成長下降關係. 如果2020 Q4 業績能

       保持Q3水平. 2020 業績就會超越2019 來的1.89B
5)Net Profit ---> 2017和 2018 連續走下坡.  2019 有回到2016 的水平.
     * 過去十年從來沒虧過錢. 2020 cumulated 3Q 已高過2019 的26.7%. 如果2020 

        Q4 能業績能保持Q3水平將會創過去10十年新高來到34M.
6)ROE ----> 2016 年開始從過去10年守在兩位數一直往單位數走.
    * 就2020 cumulated 3Q 已回到兩位數也就說2020 的ROE肯定超越過去3年.
    * ROE = EPS / NTA . 過去十年從比率角度看蠻會賺錢的> 兩倍.

7)DY ---> 2.61 @ RM2.11.
     * 以目前FD利率還算不錯.
8)Trade receivable ratio ---> 小於5.

     * 收賬能力蠻強  

     9)PBV ---> 1.71

    * 1.71 倍還算合理

10)PE ---> 10.96 @ RM2.11

     * 合理價格. 如果目前價位視為低估. 那Q4的EPS 必須比Q3來得更高最少一倍

        也是11.4.依過去十年表現Q4最高記錄只為8.7
     * 過去5年Q1 & Q2 的EPS都不會高過Q3 & Q4.
      
     ykbeh  6/11/2020

Board of Trade Derivatives Product

      Board of Trade Derivatives Product

MPOB Malaysia Palm Oil Board  大馬棕油局	Palm Oil
LME London Metal Exchange 倫敦金屬交易所	Aluminium, Copper, Zinc, Nickle, Lead, Tin, Steel Rebar
SHFE Shanghai Futures Exchange 上海期貨交易所	Steel Rebar, Aluminium, Copper, Zinc, Nickle,  Lead, Tin, Gold, Silver, wire rod, Hot rolled coils
DCE Dalian Commodity Exchange 大連商品交易所	1.   Industrial: Iron Ore, Coking coal, LLDPE,                       PVC, PP, Ethylene Glycol 2.   Agriculture: Corn, Corn Starch, Egg, Soybean,                     Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil
COMEX Commodity Exchange 紐約商品交易所	Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium
NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange 紐約商品交易所	Product Groups: Agricultural, Energy, Equity                             Index, FX, Metal, Options and etc Featured Products: WTI Crude Oil, Corn,                                Soybean, Gold, 10-Year T Note,                               Henry Hub Natural Gas                               and etc
ICE Intercontinental Exchange 洲際交易所	Product Groups: Agricultural, Energy,                             Equity Index, FX, Metal,                             Options and etc Featured Products: Global Oil Benchmarks,                                  Global Gas Benchmarks,                                  Softs (Commodities) etc Brent Crude Oil, Coal, Coffee, Sugar, Cotton, Cocoa, Grains
TOCOM Tokyo Commodity Exchange  東京商品交易所	Product Groups:  Precious Metals, Rubber,                              Agricultural (Corn, Soybean,                              Azuki(Red Bean), Refine Oil

 

            v    Bold text: Benchmark

v    Commodity Exchange Inc., COMEX merged with New York Mercantile

       Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and became the division responsible for

      metals trading

Vehicle Part Stock Companies

Vehicle Part Stock Companies

Company	Product
MBMR (MBM资源)	安全气囊，安全带，车轮
APM (APM 汽车控股)	车座，冷气系统
NHFATT (新鸿发集团)	车灯，车门，扶手
GOODWAY (顺行综合工业)	车胎
SMISCOR (  肆发集团)	车毯，刹车器
GPA (GPA 控股)	汽车电池
SAPIND (沙布拉工业)	引擎，刹车器
MBG (民泰工业)	刹车器配件
OCNCASH ( 元宙集团)	车毯
WATTA ( 华达控股)	汽车电池
EPMB ( EP制造)	车身金属片，车底零件，刹车器和油缸
MCEHLDG ( 多元电子工业)	倒车雷达，防盗系统，车窗升降器
SOLID ( 岩石汽车工业)	电子零件
GLOTEC ( 亿利达控股)	车笛， 扫水器
HIL ( 喜尔控股)	拢流板，空气导管
PECCA ( PECCA 集团)	汽车座套

Share Issuance Scheme （员工發股计划）

Share Issuance Scheme （员工發股计划）

1.    Employee Share Option, ESOS (雇员认股计划)

Employees allow to buy company share with discounted of 10% max. of market price. But discounted price cannot be over than 10% of 5 days weighted average market price.

2.    Share Grant Scheme (雇员免费送股)

Free share given to employee

             Any share issuance scheme proposal must be approved by shareholder in general meeting. Validity period of each proposal share issuance scheme normally between 5 to 10 years. After the validity period new proposal is required for the resolution. New issuance share quantity cannot over the existing share quantity of 30%. ESOS committee established once approval is granted by shareholder and ESOS committee will draft the share quantity allocation, price and vesting period (allow to sell period).

Shareholder benefits may affect;

1.    According to financial statement requirement regardless ESOS or SGS must record as an expenses and its will impact the bookkeeping profit. Even it has not affect cash flow and dividend distribution capability but market confidence level drop may happen as affect profit.

2.    If company allocate huge quantity to a single employee and the ESOS committee does not set vesting period properly. Cash out may happen anytime and will cause share price drop pressure.

3.    Independent Director may include in SIS program to indeed their contribution to the company. Independent director play as supervise role in company once involving in ESOS program and have company share become not independent. Independent director mean a director does not have a single share of company.

4.    New share issue, company share quantity will increase consequently EPS will be dilute and affect the company share price performance.

        

Steel Stocks Market Value

Steel Stocks Market Value dated on 16-06-2018  

Specialize: Cold Rolled Coil, CRC (冷轧卷)

Company	Market Value (Million)	PE
CSCSTEL (中钢馬來西亞)	509.00	9.45
MYCRON (麥克輪鋼鐡)	112.00	5.14
EMETALL (永美達集团)	95.00	6.21
YKGI (榕鋼控股)	74.00	-6.9

1.   CSCSTEL

After Megasteel (美嘉鋼鐡) temporarily closed CSCSTEL becomes the largest domestic producer. Annual production capacity of 0.48 million tonne is about 45% of domestic annual production capacity of 1.06 million tonne.

2.   MYCRON

The 2^nd largest domestic producer. Annual production capacity of 0.26 million tonne.

3.   YKGI

The 3^rd largest domestic producer. Annual production capacity of 0.20 million tonne

4.   EMETALL

The 4th largest domestic producer. Annual production capacity of 0.12 million tonne

Domestic yearly consume capacity on Cold Rolled & Cold Plate is about 1.6 million tonne.

Local production capacity unable to fulfill the demand and the gap to be fill up by import.

Along of Megasteel temporarily operation and government may impose more stringent protection measure, expect domestic producer to be full up the demand gap instead of outsider.

Malaysia government against import steel product implement anti-dumping
Product	Effective Date	Summary
Hot roll (熱轧卷), Steel Coil (花鋼卷), Pickled and oiled steel  (鋼卷和板材)	Started from 14-02-2015	Against China & Indonesia impose tariff from 2.49% to 25.4%. Duration of 5 years
Pre-painted, Painted & Color painted coil  (预涂，涂漆 或 彩涂鋼卷)	Started from 24-01-2016	Against China & Vietnam impose tariff from 12.06% to 52.10%. Duration of 5 years
Cold Roll (冷轧卷)	Started from 24-05-2016	Against China, Korea & Vietnam impose tariff from 3.06% to 23.78%. Duration of 5 years

My view point on Managepay System Berhad (MPAY)

MPAY is an ACE market board or called second board. ACE company revenue very small compare to Main Board company and deviation on revenue and profit performance sometime is unbelievable can fly to space in one second vice versa for bad management company. Actually I’m scaring on this kind of company. But still have a lot of good company with good performance and fast growth few years after moving to Main Board. MPAY is listed on ACE since 2011, founder is a younger guy and he is still holding the main post since listed. Checked back the Annual report (Y2012 ~ Y2016) let me feel uncomfortable as told scaring ACE company. Please bear in mind when read Annual report minimum 5 years back for especially ACE company as well new listed company. They are sometime playing on book keeping this why MPAY let me feel uncomfortable, 1^st three years good performance revenue keep increasing but following years (Y2015 & Y2016) is lost even Y2017 Q1 QoQ & YoY. I wonder the company why keep losing but is NET CASH company and normally NET CASH company even lost will pay dividen but not MPAY found they did two times private placement and one times exercise warrant. The founder Chew Chee Seng acquired of 28 million shares on September last year, he expected the company will have good performance after launching Mpay wallet I guess.

MPAY is Fintech company main core business e-Commerce like Credit card Pin & Pay, Pay wave etc. Listed company in Fintech field is very little. BNM  license to carry money services business and she subsidiary company was pointed in eCommerce project called Malaysia National eCommerce Strategic Roadmap and they launched a MP@Y wallet like Alipay, we chat pay etc. Last year MPAY granted another license called Peer to Pear financing platform operator license meant everyone can be a finance institute lending money to any party via MPAY platform and gain interest. Total 6 license was granted and MPAY is the only listed company.  

Advantages

1.      Company is on same track to National eCommerce Strategic roadmap

2.      Company business (Fintech) are current decade trend have bright future

3.      Company are the member in project of National eCommerce Strategic roadmap opportunity better than others.

4.      MPAY is the only company that benefit to us on eCommerce trend business because it is listed.

5.      P2P lending license on hand, Pioneer company.

Disadvatages

1.      Can MPay wallet competition to gaint companies like Samsung pay , Maybank pay  etc.?

2.      Can Fintech to be diffused in Malaysia? How long to take… 1 years , 2 years or more ?

3.      If National eCommerce & Fintech system fail as well MPAY.

4.      How market confident with Malaysia cybersecurity system will be affected to MPAY performance.

Conclusion

For long term MPAY may explode few hundred percent up in revenue in once if Fintech can be diffused in Malaysia but may need waiting at least 1 to 2 years as eCommerce ecology yet built.  For Short term as today price 0.28 few resistances to be broken in order to break the historical high, gain lever very little.

ykbeh 23/7/2017