Saturday, December 10, 2016

公司进行股票分拆或派送红股是好事!

必须注意股票分拆或派送红股,是有区别的!大部分的公司都可以分拆股票,但只有低债务,有贮备金或现金公司才有能力送红股。

理论上,股票分拆或派送红股,不会影响公司的财务,事前事后的基本面保持不变。
只是股价水平会变,股价会调低,股票数量多了。


公司股票分拆或派送红股分两个说法,股价调低后,给散户一个假象股票价格便宜,股票数量多,流动量就多,会吸引基金经理,一般基金经理会大手买进。

股票分拆或派送红股视为好事,除权后,大部份公司的股价上升机率高,但也能不排除下跌的可能性。


Sunday, May 29, 2016

轉 : 2016年5月29日星期日---> 阿土伯


浅谈业绩YoY vs QoQ

五月可说是季度报告出炉最热的一个月,一些热门网站如MalaysiaStockBiz, Bursa 等等
甚至还在5PM 过后因被过度游览而导致页面当机的情况。由此可见,大家都对自己所
持有股票的公司的成绩单是相当关注的。

那么今天我们就来浅谈业绩YoY vs QoQ
 *绝无买卖建议,买卖自负*

YoY 
1. YoY (Year Over Year),简单来说就是我们以公布的季度业绩跟上一年同个季度相比。
    Net Profit 比上年同个季度进步,就是YoY +%
    Net Profit 比上年同个季度退步,就是YoY -%

2. 我们就以最近业绩不错的Airasia 来做例子:

   我们可以看到最新季度(2016 Q1) 的Net Profit 是877,793,000。
   如果我们要比较 YoY,我们就得跟 (2015 Q1)的 Net Profit比较,以此类推。
   计算方法如下:
                             (877793-149331)
                           -------------------------  x 100% =  488%
                                   (149331)
                           
   所以我们通常在网站看到的业绩都是属于YoY的计算法。
   各大媒体/投行也多数以YoY的计算方法去报导或评估一间上市公司的表现。
 

QoQ
1. QoQ(Quarter over Quarter), 就相对比较直接,我们就是以最新公布的季度跟
    最相近的一个业绩报告比较(通常是3个月前公布的业绩)。
    Net Profit 比最相近的季度进步,就是QoQ +%
    Net Profit 比最相近的季度退步,就是QoQ -%

2. 同样的,我们以Airasia来当例子:


   如果我们也已最新的(2016 Q1)业绩来计算,QoQ我们就得跟最相近的业绩
   (2015 Q4)的业绩来比较,以此类推。
 
   计算方法如下:
                             (877793-554198)
                           -------------------------  x 100% =  58%
                                   (554198)


看过以上的例子,基本上我们都可以大略知道如何去计算业绩。

这时问题来了!我们到底要怎样评估这份业绩呢?我们要根据YoY还是QoQ?
股价又通常怎样被YoY和 QoQ 影响呢?

基本上,我们只会看到4种状况:

  • 情况(1) YoY -%, QoQ +%
  • 情况(2) YoY -%, QoQ -%
  • 情况(3) YoY +%,  QoQ +%
  • 情况(4) YoY +%,  QoQ -%

情况(1)和(2)
以现在市场敏感的情绪来说,基本上市场会给予较大的卖压,
毕竟业绩不达预期。尤其是热门股出现 YoY -%, 市场几乎都有少许失去理智的大
量抛售,这很有可能是股价一瞬间坠入谷底的原因。其中比较明显的例子就有
LATITUD,GESHEN, FLBHD, LCTH, GENETEC 等等。

情况(3)
情况(3)也相对较为直接,就是业绩很不错,无论是年还是季都交出很好的
成绩。以最近的业绩来说,被列入这个组别的就有Airasia, AAX, Gadang, Padini,
Liihen, Yeelee, Emetall, Econbhd 等等。也因此不难发现,这些股都间接地成为了
投资者们的新宠, 股价也接连攀升。

情况(4)
情况(4)可说是最为头痛的一环。市场的情绪也相对复杂。有些人不能接受一间
公司YoY上涨但QoQ下跌;有些人则认为只要公司今年比去年有进步,就是值得
开心的。

若以笔者个人的看法而言,QoQ的下跌,只要不是大幅度的下跌,而下跌的理由又
是相对合理的, 身为股东的我们就应该因为公司的业绩比去年好(YoY+%)而感到
心慰。毕竟要维持一间公司YoY和QoQ的持续上涨并不是一件容易的事。

更何况有些领域的公司的业绩是有季节性(seasonal)的,也就是说这些公司在指定的
季度里营业额或净利是相对较强/弱的。如果我们仍坚持鸡蛋里挑骨头,将两个不同
模式的季度来比较,那么就有点"欲加之罪,何患无辞"的感觉了。也更因为季节性的
可能影响,YoY就显得格外重要,毕竟它才是将两个业绩以同样的标准去评估一间公
司的表现,准确性也相对更高。

如果我们以Hevea来做个例子,最新公布的 2016 Q1 业绩,若跟2015 Q4相比, QoQ
是稍微下跌的,管理层也明确声明这是因为Q1的月份,工作日少,也间接减低了
公司的Revenue和Net Profit. 但是如果我们以YoY来计算,2016 Q1 的业绩可说是 所有
Q1 以来的历史新高。

近期内也有不少出色的公司交出了不错的YoY%但是QoQ%稍微下跌的公司。其中
包括了Tguan,  Mitra, Hevea, KESM, 等等。


总结:
公司的业绩(进步/退步)始终是决定股价上下的条件之一。身为股东的我们,时刻
都必须秉持着正确的心态去看待公司的业绩。无论是YoY, 还是QoQ,公司业绩的进
退一定有其原因,只要你能认真看待,你就能做出正确的决定是否要继续做这间上市
公司的 “小小老板”


 
共勉之
~阿土伯~

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Balance Sheet-Lialibity

Lialibity

LIABILITY can be further divided into 2 parts:

  1) NON-CURRENT LIABILITY :
       Liability that must be paid off to debtors in more than one year .
  2) CURRENT LIABILITY :
      Liability that must be paid off to debtors within one year.


Components of Non-Current Liability:
  1) LONG TERM NOTE PAYABLES : 
      Money owed by company to creditors with formal agreement. Examples are
      long term borrowing, bond issued by company.
  2) DEFERRED TAX LIABILITY : 
      Tax that had been paid less in the past.

Components of Current Liability:
  1) TRADE PAYABLES :  
       Money owed by company to suppliers
  2)  NOTE PAYABLES :
       Money owed by company to creditors with formal agreement. Examples are
       short term borrowing.
  3) ACCRUED EXPENSES :
      Expenses that had been used but haven't  pay.
  4) UNEARNED REVENUE : 
      Payments received but company has not provided good or services yet.
  5) DEFERRED TAX LIABILITY :
      Tax that had been paid less in the past.

Balance Sheet- Asset

Asset

ASSET can be further divided into 2 parts:

    1. NON-CURRENT ASSET : 
        Asset that can not be turned into money within one year
    2. CURRENT ASSET : 
        Asset that can be turned into money within one year


Component of Non-Current Assets:

    1. PROPERTY, PLANT, AND EQUIPMENT(PPE) : 
        Tangible asset that can be used to generate profit and last more than one years.
        Examples are building, equipment, machinery, furniture and land. 
    2. CONSTRUCTION IN PROGRESS :
        Buildings that are in the process of constructing.
    3. INVESTMENT PROPERTY :
        Property that are used to receive rental income or value appreciation and 
        not used for production or administration purpose.
    4. INTANGIBLE ASSET :
        Asset without physical appearance. Examples are patent, license, trademarks.
    5. GOODWILL :
        When company acquired another firm, the different between buy price and
         the excess value of that firm(asset-liability) is goodwill.
    6. FINANCIAL ASSET :  
        Financial security that will not be sold within one year. Examples are bonds 
        hold for maturity.
    7. DEFERRED TAX ASSET : 
       Tax that had been paid more in the past or tax incentive that can be used  for
       tax reduction in futures.


Components of Current Assets:

    1. INVENTORY :
       Goods that will eventually be sold to customers. For  example: raw materials , 
       work-in-progress and finished goods.
    2. TRADE AND OTHER RECEIVABLES :
        Money owed by customers to company.
    3. PREPAID EXPENSE :
        Expense that had been paid in advance but not been used.
    4. MARKETABLE SECURITY :  
        Financial security that can be changed into cash within one year.
        Examples are stocks, bonds, bank notes, treasury bills.
    5. CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS :
        Consists of cash and deposits in banks.

Balance Sheet- Equity

Equity

Components of Equity
  1) SHARE CAPITAL : 
      Money collected by issuing shares through IPO or right issues. 
  2) SHARE PREMIUM :
      Excess amount received by a firm over the par value of its shares during IPO.
  3) TREASURY SHARES :
      Company repurchases its own shares.
  4) RETAINED EARNINGS : 
      Cumulative earnings of company from previous years.
  5) OTHER RESERVES :
      Reserves that had been set aside for other purposes.
  6) NON-CONTROLLING INTEREST :
      Equity interest owed by minority shareholders in subsidiaries firms which are
       not wholly owned by company.

Financial Report- Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet (also called Statement of Financial Position) consists of three things:
     1 ASSET : Total valuable things that company owned
     2 LIABILITY : Money borrowed from debtors
     3 EQUITY: Money received from shareholders and previous years earnings

The relationship between these three things are:

ASSET= LIABILITY+ EQUITY

*A company use the money borrowed from creditors (LIABILITY) and money 
 received from shareholders and previous years earnings(EQUITY) to buy 
 valuable things (ASSET)

ASSET can be further divided into 2 parts:
    1 NON-CURRENT ASSET : Asset that can not be turned into money 
                                                  within one year
    2 CURRENT ASSET : Asset that can be turned into money within one year

LIABILITY can be further divided into 2 parts:
    1 NON-CURRENT LIABILITY : Liability that must be paid off to debtors in 
                                                       more than one year
    2 CURRENT LIABILITY : Liability that must be paid off to debtors within 
                                              one year.

Financial Report-Income Statement

Income Statement



Components of Income Statement:
  1) REVENUE : Price x Quantity
  2) COST OF GOOD SOLD : Direct costs involved in producing  products.   
       Examples are materials, direct labour, factory overhead such as electricity 
       bill and depreciation of machines.
  3) GROSS PROFIT : REVENUE - COST OF GOOD SOLD
  4) OTHER OPERATING PROFIT : Other incomes from direct sales of
      products such as sales of electricity and rental fees from unused spaces
      from building used for operation.
  5) OPERATING EXPENSE :  Indirect expense incurred other than direct cost 
       such as general & administrative expenses, sales & distribution expenses,  
       promotion expenses, research expenses.
  6) OPERATING PROFIT :  GROSS PROFIT +
      OTHER OPERATING PROFIT - OPERATING EXPENSE
  7) FINANCIAL PROFIT (also called Non-Operating Profit) : Profit that are 
      generated from non-operating activities. Examples are interest received, 
      gain from selling securities.
  8) FINANCIAL EXPENSE (also called Non-Operating Expense) : Expense that
       are not included in operating activities. Examples are interest paid, lost from
       selling securities.
  9) PROFIT BEFORE TAX (PBT) : OPERATING PROFIT +
      FINANCIAL PROFIT - FINANCIAL EXPENSE
  10) INCOME TAX : Tax paid to government based on profit before tax (or more
        accurate taxable income)
  11) NET PROFIT FROM CONTINUING ACTIVITIES : 
        PROFIT BEFORE TAX - INCOME TAX
  12) NET PROFIT FROM DISCONTINUED ACTIVITIES : Gain/ Loss from 
        liquidating one of the sectors of the company
  13) OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOMES : Mainly consist of three factors 
        that not added into the profit. Examples are Gain/ Loss from foreign 
        currency, gain/loss from hedging, unrealised gain of available-for-sales 
        securities.
  14) TOTAL COMPREHENSIVE INCOMES : NET PROFIT +
         OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOMES